Home prices rose an astonishing 33% between Q2 2020 and Q2 2022 but are now coming back down to earth, if only slightly. New reporting from data firm Black Knight concludes that home prices dipped for two straight months in July and August, declining 1.05% and 0.98% in each month, respectively, and a combined 2.0% for the two months. Both represent the largest monthly decline in home prices since the beginning of 2009.
In a press release, Black Knight Data & Analytics President Ben Graboske discussed the importance of the recent home price decline. “The only months with materially higher single-month price declines than we’ve seen in July and August were in the winter of 2008, following the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy and subsequent financial crisis”, Graboske said.
Graboske also mentioned that housing inventory is a wildcard that will affect housing prices going forward. Right now, the housing supply is highly restrained by inadequate construction and high-interest rates that dissuade buyers from listing their properties.
“It will be worth watching inventory levels closely in coming months for any sign of a shift in seller sentiment. Right now, prospective sellers are not only coming to grips with falling demand and declining prices due to sharply higher interest rates, but they also have a growing disincentive to give up their own historically low-rate mortgages in this environment. Some may be waiting out the market to see if demand – and prices – return in the spring”, Graboske said.
Will Home Prices Continue to Fall?
Because of high-interest rates and expensive home prices, it seems increasingly likely that home prices will fall. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently predicted a “housing market correction,” but what will this correction look like?
Some firms expect home prices to continue increasing at a more steady level. A new report from CoreLogic forecasts that annual home price growth will fall to 3.2% by August 2023, representing a normal level of annual price appreciation. However, many other firms predict zero or negative price growth over the coming year.
Moody’s Analytics also predicts that home prices will fall between 0% and 5%. However, if there is a recession, home prices will decline by 5% to 10%. Goldman Sachs predicts a 5% to 10% depreciation in home prices, but there could be further declines if the national economy tanks. Morgan Stanley forecasts that home prices will fall 7% by the end of 2023, which would be the second-largest decline since The Great Depression.
Even if home prices drop, buying a house will remain prohibitively expensive for many Americans. If Morgan Stanley’s forecast comes true and home prices decrease 7% by the end of 2023, purchasing a home will still be “32% above where home prices were in March 2020.” Unfortunately, that doesn’t even consider the added cost of higher mortgage interest rates.
