News & TrendsInterests Rates Will Rise, but Freddie Mac Expects Housing to Remain Stable

Interests Rates Will Rise, but Freddie Mac Expects Housing to Remain Stable

Freddie Mac released its latest quarterly forecast last week. According to the report, homebuyers and homeowners should expect the single-family housing market to remain stable in 2022. Mortgage rates will continue to increase, which will moderate demand for housing and lead to slower price increases compared to 2021. 

Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sam Khater predicts that despite the reduced level of demand, a lack of adequate, available inventory will keep the housing market competitive for buyers hoping to enter the market.

“As mortgage rates rise, we do expect some moderation in housing demand, causing house price growth to temper. However, the combination of a large number of entry-level homebuyers facing a shortage of entry-level inventory of homes for sale should keep the housing market competitive,” said Khater. “In 2022, we expect purchase originations to grow from $1.9 trillion in 2021 to $2.1 trillion in 2022, while refinance activity will decrease from $2.7 trillion in 2021 to $1.2 trillion in 2022.”

Highlights from Freddie mac’s quarterly forecast

  • House price growth was 15.9% in 2021 and will slow down to 6.2% in 2022. This growth is much higher than pre-pandemic levels, although price growth should slow to a more normalized 2.5% in 2023. House price growth was 15.9% in 2021.
  • Freddie Mac expects 6.9 million home sales in 2022, the same number as 2021. Home sales will slightly increase to 7.0 million in 2023. 
  • In 2021, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) was 3.0%. Freddie Mac expects the 30-year FRM to average 3.6% in 2022 and 3.9% in 2023. This will lead to softening demand and slower price growth over the next couple of years. 
  • Mortgage originations were valued at a total of $1.9 trillion in 2021 and will increase to $2.1 trillion in 2022 and $2.2 trillion in 2023.
  • Refinance originations will decline from $2.7 trillion in 2021 to $1.2 trillion in 2022 and $930 billion in 2023. Softening demand for refinancing is a direct result of rising mortgage interest rates.
  • According to Freddie Mac, total mortgage originations will decline from 2021’s level of $4.7 Trillion. 2022 mortgage originations will reach $3.3 trillion in 2022 and $3.1 trillion in 2023. 

The Implications for Homebuyers in 2022

The housing market was on a wild ride in 2021 with unprecedented housing demand and historically low interest rates. Nationwide home prices were up 14% year-over-year. Multiple key markets saw growths over 20%, including Austin, TX, Raleigh, NC, Las Vegas, NV, and Colorado Springs, CO. After 2021’s red-hot housing market, homebuyers should expect the market to cool down in 2022. However, prices should still rise, and competition will remain high. We are still in a sellers’ market, so buyers should stay patient to find a home that fits their criteria and budget. Consult a top real estate agent in your area before starting your home search.